5 Key Factors That Will Decide US Senate Runoff Election In Georgia: The Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock or the Republican nominee Herschel Walker will represent Georgia in the Senate in the upcoming term. Voters in Georgia will make that decision on Tuesday.
After a heated, month-long runoff battle in which Democrats spent nearly twice as much money as the G.O.P., the midterm elections came to a close. However, in politics, money will only go you so far. These five important criteria will be used to determine the winner.
Republicans’ Election Day turnout
Mr. Warnock has won the early vote. The secretary of state’s office reports that about a third of the early votes cast in the runoff were cast by Black voters, who exit polls showed supported Mr. Warnock by a wide margin on November 8.
This is a higher percentage than in previous Georgia runoff elections. About 56 percent of the votes have been cast by women, who also supported Mr. Warnock last month. And the 18 to 24-year-old Gen Z voters, who tend to lean liberal, have risen strongly.
According to Democratic modelers, Mr. Warnock holds a roughly eight percentage point advantage going into Election Day. If this is the case, they assert, Republicans would need to turn out in large numbers and win roughly 60% of the votes cast on Tuesday for Mr. Walker to triumph.
The Weather
More bad news for Mr. Walker: Tuesday is expected to be cloudy and rainy, especially in North Georgia, which is largely Republican. Georgians are displaying signs of fatigue, but a highly motivated electorate would not let a chilly, muddy day keep them from the polls.
The brutal primary season in the spring pitted Georgia Republicans who supported their governor, Brian Kemp, in the face of Mr. Trump’s criticisms against Donald J. Trump’s wing of the Republican Party.
After a contentious general election for governor and the Senate in the fall, a runoff has flooded the airwaves with attack advertisements. The Tuesday election may feel much more laborious if there is a day of severe December rain.
Georgia, today is Election Day—and the eyes of the nation are on you.
Head to the polls and help send @ReverendWarnock back to the U.S. Senate. https://t.co/1Y1bE3E02P
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) December 6, 2022
Black Men
When Mr. Trump chose Mr. Walker as his chosen candidate, he reasoned that the former Heisman Trophy winner, who led the University of Georgia to a national title in 1980, would naturally appeal to Black voters, who had supported Mr. Warnock, a minister at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, with a strong showing two years prior.
That indicated a poor estimate. But in Stacey Abrams’ rematch with Mr. Kemp in the contest for governor, many Black men likewise weren’t very fond of a Black woman. Because some Black men cast ballots for both Mr. Kemp and Mr. Warnock, Mr. Kemp easily won the election in November with 53 percent of the vote, even though Mr. Warnock almost reached 50 percent.
Georgia, polls are now open! Cast your ballot to reelect @ReverendWarnock and keep Georgia blue. Visit https://t.co/FsQFse2eXb to find your polling location.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) December 6, 2022
Another Black male voter who did not cast his ballot on November 8 because he was turned off by Ms. Abrams will be in the spotlight on Tuesday. According to GeorgiaVotes.com, a website that uses open data to examine voting trends, more than 76,000 voters who have already cast runoff ballots did not cast a ballot in the main election. That can be an indication of motivated Black males.
November’s Ticket Splitters
In November, Governor Kemp received 2.1 million votes, more than 200,000 more than Mr. Walker. In addition, Mr. Warnock received 1.9 million votes, more than 130,000 more than Ms. Abrams. A sizable portion of Georgians cast ballots for both Mr. Warnock, a Democrat, and Mr. Kemp, a Republican.
Voters who turned out to re-elect Mr. Kemp may have reluctantly voted to re-elect Mr. Warnock, so one question on Tuesday is whether they will come out only to support Mr. Warnock.
Georgia, it’s Election Day! A lot of folks still have questions about voting, so here’s what you need to know to make sure your voice is heard today:
— Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) December 6, 2022
Kemp Voters
A more important query is whether Republican voters who turned out in November to support Mr. Kemp and the entire straight Republican ticket, including Mr. Walker, will turn out at all this time. Walker has emerged as a candidate with significant flaws.
He had been accused of domestic violence and stalking by an ex-wife, an ex-girlfriend, and a Dallas Cowboys cheerleader even before primary voters chose him in May. Since then, he has had to acknowledge having unmarried children.
Georgia, rain is not an excuse to not vote. Go vote today! pic.twitter.com/FSM5t2pbSV
— Reverend Raphael Warnock (@ReverendWarnock) December 6, 2022
Christian Walker, his son, has publicly charged him with abuse and neglect. And according to two women, Mr. Walker, who describes himself as a fervently anti-abortion Christian, pressured them into having abortions.
Mr. Walker received 48.5 percent of the vote last month thanks to Mr. Kemp’s popularity. Mr. Walker will need to perform even better on Tuesday and without the governor’s support.
Final Lines
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